ABD Enflasyon Raporu ve Piyasa Etkileri
Enflasyon Verileri İle Karşılaştırma
ABD’de enflasyon, 2024’ün ilk ayında aylık yüzde 0,3, yıllık yüzde 3,1 olarak tahminlerin üzerinde gerçekleşti.
Beklenti enflasyonun aylık %0,2 olması, yıllık %2,9’a gerilemesiydi. Çekirdek enflasyon ise aylık %0,4 ile 8 ayın zirvesine işaret etti.
Temmuz %3,2
Ağustos %3,7
Eylül %3,6
Ekim %3,2
Kasım %3,1
Aralık %3,4
Ocak %3,1
Piyasalardaki Etkileri
Economists had been expressing how challenging it would be for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation target. January’s inflation figure revealed that the path is even more challenging and volatile than anticipated. Looking at the 7-month inflation figures, we can clearly see a “two steps forward, one step back” situation.
One of the main reasons for the stock market surge was the expectation that the Fed would cut interest rates in the near future. However, January’s inflation exceeding expectations had a cooling effect on the markets. The S&P500 index, which had hit record levels with 5,000 points in 2024, experienced a sharp decline.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond increased by 15 basis points to 4.32%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury bond rose by 19 basis points to 4.66%. According to many analysts, the 5% level seen in October 2023 could be seen again.
Gold, on the other hand, hit its lowest level since December 13. The price of an ounce of gold fell below $2,000. However, it is necessary to note the impact of Bitcoin ETFs in the gold space. Many investors shifted from gold to Bitcoin ETFs.
The dollar index surged sharply after the January inflation, nearing a 3-month high. As a result, the USD/TRY exchange rate approached the 31 lira level.
However, looking at the markets, this situation may not be seen as a sole reason for a decline. The U.S. stock market has risen by 5.4% since the beginning of the year. We also mentioned the records on the S&P side. Additionally, there has been a rise in technology companies.
According to many analysts, the markets were in need of a spark. January’s inflation was the news needed for a decline. In the long term, although not as monthly, interest rate cuts are certain. Therefore, although the situation may seem negative in the short term, stock markets may continue to maintain their attractiveness in the long term.
Fed’in Faiz Kararları ve Beklentiler
Indicator shows that after the inflation data, there is an 80% chance of the Fed lowering interest rates four times by December and a roughly 50% chance of five cuts. Derivative markets are pricing in an approximately 175 basis point reduction in interest rates between May 2022 and June 2025. The expectation of the first rate cut in March started the prediction cycle, which was postponed until July.
Fed Chairman Powell recently made “cautious” statements about interest rate cuts even when inflation approached the 2% target. Therefore, after the above-expectation CPI data, it is more likely that this cautious stance will continue.
Furthermore, the U.S. economy still shows a resilient trend. At this point, the Fed will not rush to soften its monetary policy. On the other hand, the decisions the Fed will make until the elections in November will continue to be in the sights of both Democrats and Republicans.