U.S. Economic Data in Focus Amid Government Shutdown

Investors are closely monitoring second-tier economic data from the United States today, as the ongoing government shutdown casts uncertainty over the economic landscape. With limited activity on the macro calendar, the spotlight is on the October reading of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Philly Fed), which is expected to provide insights into the economic outlook across the Atlantic.

Economic Updates from the UK and Australia

In the UK, recent data revealed a somewhat disappointing performance in GDP, construction spending, and services, although industrial production managed to exceed expectations. Meanwhile, during the Asian trading session, markets were greeted with soft labor market data from Australia, where the unemployment rate increased from 4.2% to 4.5%. However, it’s noteworthy that employment growth surpassed forecasts, indicating some resilience in the labor market.

Key Economic Releases

• 12:15 PM GMT (CA) – Housing Starts (October): Forecast 257k vs. Previous 245.8k
• 12:30 PM GMT (US) – Philly Fed Index (October): Forecast 10 vs. Previous 23.2

Central Bank Speakers Scheduled

• 1:00 PM GMT – Fed’s Waller, Miran, and Barr
• 2:00 PM GMT – Fed’s Bowman
• 2:45 PM GMT – BoE’s Mann
• 2:45 PM GMT – ECB’s Kocher
• 4:00 PM GMT – ECB’s Lagarde
• 5:30 PM GMT – BoC’s Macklem
• 6:30 PM GMT – BoE’s Greene

Earnings Calendar Highlights

• Before U.S. Market Open: Charles Schwab, Marsh & McLennan, Intuitive Surgical, BNY Mellon, U.S. Bancorp, Travelers
• After Market Close: CSX Corp, Interactive Brokers

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In summary, today’s economic data releases and central bank speeches are crucial for investors navigating the uncertainties brought on by the government shutdown. The mixed signals from the UK and Australia further complicate the global economic outlook. As we await the Philly Fed Index, market participants will be keen to gauge its implications for future monetary policy and economic growth.